Month: June 2011

Four Baseline Measures to Improve Your Problemsolving

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Trying to solve  a problem without baseline data is a fool’s errand.
It is the contrast between the data of the process, and the baseline data, that makes it possible to identify that a problem exists and to analyze it for root cause.
Most problems are identified because the output departs from the expected.
Brainstorms do not solve problems, they usually just waste resources in a process of aggrandized groupthink.

How's the power production there, team?

I call this “the Diff” when I am working with continuous improvement teams. It is the difference between expected and actual.
You cannot have a difference without having an expected or baseline measure of the characteristic to be improved.
Four Measures that I have used in my continuous improvement work include

  • Frequency of Occurrence,
  • Cost,
  • Duration,
  • Location of Occurrence.

Frequency of Occurrence
The difference between expected (or under statistical control) frequency and the rate of occurrence in the current state gives insights into what may be occurring. If it is a small fraction of a percent- it is unlikely that a global change of process is needed. if the rate is in the double digit percentages, it is likely that there is a major change in the process (or needed!)
Simple ratios can also be powerful clues. Defects arriving in 20, 25 or 33 percent  of the production point to areas within the greater process where there may be 5, 4, or 3 sub processes- like dies, cavities, or molds. Similarly, a rate of 12.5%  on an 8 spindle screw machine tells me not to look at a single tool ( it hits all 8 spindles) but instead to look for one of the 8 spindles (12.5% of the machine’s total production) that might be out of line compared to the others.
Costs
My cell phone costs spiked almost 100%  in July of 2010. In August, I brought my Dad back home to a nearby assisted living facility. The cell phone cost data was a pretty clear ‘cost’ signal that something had changed compared to prior (baseline) bills- Dad need assistance. ( BTW- Dad’s doing fine!)
Duration
Comparison of time to complete 100 ton orders on my mill  grew  by a significant figure, and follow up indicated a problem at an intermediate shear. Without baseline data, how would I have known  that my production time had increased?
Location of occurrence
This  is another piece of data that when tallied against the baseline of “no occurrences” always leads your thinking. If it only occurs in the threaded area, but not on the original bar surface, what does that mean?
Looking for deltas or “Diffs” between your baseline and current process data is a far better way to inform your Problemsolving than Brainstorming.
Interested? The Delta is the Difference

Manufacturing Outlook Summer 2011

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The predictions are mixed, but if  we were giving the small craft weather advisory   summer outlook for precision machining, we’d say mostly sunny,   partly cloudy,  choppy seas, and increasing headwinds.

Maybe a little choppy...

Mostly sunny. Lets face it compared to the summer of 2009 it’s a great day to be in manufacturing. PMPA’s Business Trends Sales index is back above 110 and up to pre 2007  levels.
Partly cloudy. We really don’t have a lot of transparency on our customers demand forecasts. Because our customers  don’t either.
Manufacturing has lead the current recovery, not consumers. With housing values depressed, consumers don’t have a lot of cash to buy, so everyone is “blind” to where the broad demand will come from and for what.
Choppy seas. Because while the official statistics don’t say inflation, the prices and surcharges we see for the critical raw materials we need to make our precision engineered components are certainly on the rise. But our customers are conveniently in denial. So plenty of waves and hidden rocks in our short term.
Increasing headwinds. Once the banks see even the slightest slowdown in order book  they will almost certainly be tightening up capital requirements. Then we won’t be able to  get favorable terms on the loan we need to buy that more expensive raw material, that new high technology cost- and labor- saving machine, or working capital to make payroll.
That’s our weather report. Mostly sunny, partly cloudy, slight choppy and increasing headwinds.
What a great day to be out on the water in  precision manufacturing!
Thanks to Northwest Paddling for the great photo. Maybe some day…

You’ve Got Mail- OSHA Announces 19,000 Private Sector Firm Survey

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File under “If you can’t get something through the legislative process, just create a new rule.”
In yet another instance of making an undated announcement on its website,  DOL/OSHA (sometime, recently, yesterday, who knows?) announced its Safety and Health Practices Survey of private sector employers  regarding their current safety and health practices.
According to OSHA “This survey will allow OSHA to better design future rules, compliance assistance, and outreach efforts.”
What the original Federal Register notice said was that this survey ” is to gain information… to support its rulemaking effort directed toward requiring employers to
establish injury and illness prevention programs to monitor and more effectively implement practices to mitigate workplace hazards…” (Emphasis ours.)
Link to Fed Reg 12 Aug 2010 Vol 75 no. 155, pps 48992-48994
The undated OSHA Announcement web page continues:
“The survey, which may contact as many as 19,000 employers nationwide, will ask questions about employers’ current practices with regard to safety and health management in their workplaces. For example, the survey will ask employers if they already have a safety management system, whether they perform annual inspections, who manages safety at their establishment, and what kinds of hazards they encounter at their facilities.”
No mention of whether or not the survey comes with a copy of Miranda Rights warning for employers.
But as we have shown in the original federal register posting, the intent is to justify their putsch for mandating Injury and Illness Prevention Plans. (I2P2)
I2P2 is the OSHA plan to backdoor implement the ergonomics standard into effect that was rejected under the Congressional Review act. It creates a means to hold employers accountable for hazards that even the authorities haven’t identified, and to the  requirements of the rejected ergonomics standard. (Concerned? – read the coverage from The Hill on this issue.)
The survey will come via mail, and is being conducted by a contractor, ERG. The webpage mentions a website for the survey as well, but in the same fashion as not dating  the OSHA web announcements, the address of the survey website seems to have been omitted. According to the OMB filing  a sample of 400 establishments from “Group 6. Final Manufacturing” is anticipated. This group contains our  industry’s 3 digit NAICS code 332.
If you are selected, they will follow up: “As noted above, reminder postcards will be sent to potential respondents two weeks after the mailing of the initial survey invitation letter. After four weeks, telephone contact with each nonrespondent will be attempted to encourage completion of the questionnaire either electronically or by mail. Callers will attempt up to six calls to reach the potential respondents. A final reminder postcard will be mailed after six weeks to the remaining nonrespondents. OSHA’s survey contractor will also implement a help line to answer both telephone and e-mail questions about the survey posed by respondents.”- Pdf OMB approval of survey
Tool You Can Use
 The undated OSHA web announcement plainly states: “Participation in the survey is voluntary.”
Link to OSHA’s undated Safety and Health Practices Survey Announcement
You’ve Got Mail

Free Quality Management E-book

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Written by Dr. Frank Gryna, coauthor  (with Juran) of the first four editions of Juran’s Quality Control Handbook.
His most recent book, Work Overload-Redesign the Work, was published by ASQ Quality Press.
In this free e- book,  Dr. Gyrna posits that  much of work overload is due to the waste and the inherent ineffectiveness found in most every position. Gryna maintains that overload is a failure in the design of the work, not the worker.
ASQ is offering you this title as an e-book free of charge, just by registering here.
I was always a believer that we should look first at the system, not the employee, and both Drs’ Juran and Gryna have made that point effectively throughout their life work. If you want to get a look at job burnout through the lens of “lean” but through the experience of a respected quality veteran,  get this free ebook.
Photocredit:

Export Facts For Small and Medium Enterprises

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SME’s made up 97.6% of all US exporters- 269,269 SME’s (businesses employing fewer than 500 workers) exported from the USA in 2009 (latest data available).
Known export revenue of these SME’s- $308.0 billion– that’s ~32.8% of goods exports.

By the way, SME's also need access to capital.

SME’s accounted for 97.1 % of identified importers in 2009; 174,612 SME’s reported imports.
Current Export Situation
According to March 2011 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report, U.S. exports of goods and services increased by 4.6%  in March 2011 to a record $172.7 billion since February 2011.
The record was made up of record exports of goods ($124.9 billion) and services ($47.7 billion).
What about the Delta?
The monthly increase in export value (delta or difference)  for goods and services between February and March 2011 was $7.7 billion, also the highest monthly change (delta) on record.
Optimistic Bottom Line: U.S. goods and services exports in the first quarter of 2011 are up 14.9% to $505.2 billion from the $439.6 billion in exports logged in first quarter 2010.
Pessimistic Bottom Line: U.S. Imports of goods and services increased as well,  4.9% over this period, to $220.8 billion.
Result- U.S. Trade Deficit increased by 6.0% since February 2011 to reach $48.2 billion March 2011.
Imagine what the U.S. Trade Deficit would be if the SME’s hadn’t stepped up in March…
Photo credit:  Umpqua Bank  (Really a neat story here- check it out.)
Data: U.S. Export Fact Sheet March 2011

Heavy Truck Sales Improving In 2011- Paccar

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Good news for precision machining companies and those looking for a continued economic recovery.

Increased Heavy Truck Sales Can Mean "Green" For Your Precision Machining Shop.

Paccar Inc. (Manufacturer of Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks) predicted that 2011 will be the best year for commercial truck sales in five years, according to a recent report from Dow Jones business News (link below).
The company increased its industry-wide sales forecast for the U.S. and Canada to between 200,000 and 220,000 heavy-duty trucks this year, up from 180,000 to 200,000 vehicles forecast in February.
The revised outlook represents about a 65 percent increase from 2010’s sales volume and would be the highest sales level since 2006.
Two factors that could upset this forecast include:
1) Suppliers having difficulty keeping up with orders for components due to the industry slowdown;
2) Exposure to Japanese component suppliers whose operations have been disrupted by the earthquake and tsunami and ongoing power shortages;
Why we’re optimistic about Heavy Truck Market Recovery:
Paccar CEO Mark Pigott predicted that second-quarter deliveries of Paccar trucks will increase by 15 percent to 20 percent from the first quarter. The company has added shifts at assembly plants and added employees to its workforce, according to the original Dow Jones story here on the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association  (HDMA) website..
“The orders are strong,” he said. “We’ve got an [order] backlog out to July and August. It looks reasonably good.”
Heavy Truck market has been highly cyclical and sales down for precision machining companies since 2007.
Welcome back, Heavy Truck.
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