The unemployment rate they talk about in the press is the U-3 rate. The unemployment rate that the people in the country are really feeling is called the U-6 rate.
The U-6 rate includes the unemployed, the marginally attached, and persons who are actually employed but who work fewer hours than they would like.
While that 8% rate may sound like a real improvement, the fact is that in human terms, not filtered through the rose-colored lens of policy wonks or reporter-speak, the real rate is U-6 or almost double the “official” U-3 rate.
Critical thinking is about recognizing and challenging assumptions. What assumptions are built into the people talking on TV about unemployment?
As this graph shows, one assumption is that they aren’t even talking about darn near half the people who are “unemployed, marginally attached, and persons who are actually employed but who work fewer hours than they would like.”
Which would you rather hire- a plant manager or a profitability engineer?
The outlook is bleak for plant managers according to CBS Newswho listed the job title as one of the top ten positions in decline.
“Automation and offshoring will decimate the ranks of production managers by 2018. According to the BLS, employment will drop by 11,900 jobs from a 2008 total of 156,100. With faster machines and better productivity, one plant can do the work of two, squeezing managers out. Increased imports of manufactured goods will do additional damage… The outlook is equally bleak for managers in the computer, electronics, and auto parts industries.”
The BLS Outlook for Production Managers:
Projections data from the National Employment Matrix
Here is a brief Overview of the BLS entry for Industrial Production Manager:
“Industrial production managers plan, direct, and coordinate the production activities required to produce the vast array of goods manufactured every year in the United States. They make sure that production meets output and quality goals while remaining within budget. Depending on the size of the manufacturing plant, industrial production managers may oversee the entire plant or just one area of it. Industrial production managers devise methods to use the plant’s personnel and capital resources to best meet production goals. They may determine which machines will be used, whether new machines need to be purchased, whether overtime or extra shifts are necessary, and what the sequence of production will be. They monitor the production run to make sure that it stays on schedule, and they correct any problems that may arise.” BLS
Plan, Direct, Coordinate production activities- those sound like things the shop’s computerized systems do- or are supposed to do.
If the computer runs the plant... what does the plant manager do?
Who is responsible for generating and increasing profits?
Who is making sure the job is running at the cycle time and quality that it was quoted?
Who is assuring that the parts won’t have systemic errors because of inadequacies in quality control?
Who is helping to keep the machine cycles effective and efficient and pushing beyond “book” rates? That the jobs are run on machines to assure best utilization of your company’s investment in Horsepower?
The profitability engineer is the one human being who can do these things. Not a computer. Not a manager. Not a boss.
The gap between your technology’s capability and its current level of operational attainment is where your hidden profits will be found. Is there a profitability engineer in your house?
Many plant managers are in fact Profitability Engineers- maybe they ought to recognize that the value they add is not in managing a plant, but in engineering company profits.
Leadership is about action, not potential. Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data shows that it is the USA, not China, that is leading the world out of the slowdown.
Maybe the term SHOULD be U-BRIC
Here are 5 reasons that PMI data is relevant evidence for your analysis
PMI is a reliable fact-based indicator as opposed to opinion or confidence-based indicators.
PMI is produced monthly, faster than comparable official data series.
PMI covers almost all private sector economic activity in many countries (including the all-important service sectors).
PMI are not revised after publication.
PMI are produced using the same methodology in all countries where they are produced- assuring comparability.
While we associate the PMI data with the Institute for Supply Management, the fact is that Markit Economics is the firm doing the actual surveys and reporting.
Every precision machining shop has a calibration system to assure that its products are dimensionally compliant and meet the expectations of its customers.
“Competence is Not an Option” and “Developing Good Managers into Great Leaders” are the two presentations that Art Turock will make at the 2012 PMPA Management Update Conference.
Crude steel production reported by the World Steel Association was 1,526.9 megatonnes in 2011, up 6.8% over 2010. This is a new record for global crude steel production. Imagine what the demand for steel would be if we had a robust recovery free of economic temblors!
United States production was 3rd world wide with 86.2 megatonnes after China at 695.5 megatonnes, and Japan at 107.6 megatonnes. The US figure was up 7.1% over 2010.
In 2011, crude steel production in North America was 118.9 Mt, an increase of 6.8% on 2010. The US produced 86.2 Mt of crude steel, 7.1% higher than 2010.
While prices have softened lately, we continue to be bullish for higher prices long term based on global demand due to improved living standards everywhere.
By our calculations this 1.5 billion tonnes of steel is approximately 0.22 of a tonne per person or about 486 pounds per person for each of the 6.9 billion folks on the planet.
