Month: December 2017

How Do I Select Good Quality Stainless Steel?

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There are a number of issues to be resolved before the bars get to your machines for production.

 

Suitable for End-Use

First, the material that you select must be suitable for the end use, so determining the appropriate chemical resistance needed for the application is your first ‘screen.’ I like to use the Corrosion Resistance Tables provided by Carpenter to make sure that I get this right.

Required Mechanical Properties

Next, in addition to the appropriate chemical resistance for the application, the material that you select must have the mechanical properties necessary for the application. High temperatures, low temperatures, thermal cycling, impact or tensile loads, magnetic response or electrical properties ( think solenoid applications) -what are the mechanical properties required?

Ability to be Fabricated

Now we need to look at your list of candidate grades to determine their ability to be fabricated into the geometry needed for your part. Is machinability going to be an issue here? How about cold work, or work-hardening? Which grade will assure that the parts produced will have necessary features, fit, and finish, without requiring additional (expen$ive) processing.

Determine Commercial Availability

Now from the much shorter list of candidate materials, it is time to determine if the grade you want is ‘commercially available.’ While the grade you prefer may indeed be listed in somebody’s catalog, the fact is that there may be a minimum order quantity, lead time, or freight expense that makes your choice commercially impossible. Not to mention that the grade you select may be available only in a different form- like flat roll rather than bar stock. In this case, you consider the second best choice, then the third, until you get to material that is actually commercially and practically available.

Consider Costs- and Benefits

Finally, you can look at the cost per pound/kilo to rank the grades available. Here is where you need to be very careful, as savings in cost per pound can be easily lost if the grade you choose is too expensive to fabricate due to lower speeds and feeds required to get features and finish compared to alternatives that may be slightly more expensive per pound. Or your lower cost material may require an additional thermal processing step that the others do not. Perhaps you need special straightness or a special end treatment,  that is a benefit that might justify the additional expense, and that is only available in certain grades from certain suppliers- we’ll address that next.

Final Criteria, Supplier and Agency Acceptability

Lastly, now that you are ready to place the order, it is time for one last contract review to assure that the material supplier is accredited and on your customer’s approved supplier, approved process, certified quality system lists, as well as an acceptable country of origin.  Also that they are agency approved if there are agency requirements  cited in the specification. And that if the grade you chose has ‘conflict minerals’ in it, that your customer signs off on that, or is willing to pay whatever up-charge you may find necessary to cover your costs of conflict mineral compliance and reporting. If you or your customer is sensitive to preferred suppliers- often the case due to their special means of provisioning- special straightness, packaging, end geometries available, tighter tolerances, etc. etc.,  now is the time to consider that as well.

That’s the way I do it. Order of operations is a hierarchy of suitabilities.

If you follow my methodology of suitability- in order-chemical compatibility for end-use, properties, then processing availability, costs and supplier status- you will avoid a lot of extra work and wasted time.

Have and follow a process.

What Could be on Santa's List for Your Shop?

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We spoke with the Jolly Old Elf earlier this year to try to learn what he had in store for us…

While Santa didn’t give us any clues as to what he had in his bag for our shops, I have consulted with some of his  economists -uhh- favorite elves-  to try to get a sneak peek, as well as some sensemaking from our own Business Trends Report. Our Business Trends Report has been reporting an 8% or more higher level of sales and shipments for our industry all year- we and our favorite economists see that continuing in 2018 first half for sure…
Here’s what I think Santa has in his bag for you going into 2018:
New Technology – Yes, we know that you can’t find the additional people that you need to run new machines. THAT IS ALL THE REASON YOU NEED  to try to automate everything that you already have, so that you can free up the talent that you already have to move up to their highest and best use. That highest and best use will be on the newer equipment you will need to stay competitive in the strong markets ahead. Also, reconsider your approaches to tooling and accessories for what you have now. Cheapest cost per tool makes economic sense (maybe) in a slow market and hunker down economy. When your shop is so busy that you are routinely scheduling overtime and are at the limits of your capacity, tooling and accessories that reduce set up time, operate longer between adjustments, and provide additional benefits such as tighter tolerance capability are  an investment that leads to maximizing income from the capacity that you have available. Talk to PMPA’s Tech members to see how their tools, accessories, software, specialty materials and metalworking fluids can help you wring more production out of your current capacity in less time.
Training, Training, Training – The talent already on your team is your strongest asset. Training them to perform at their highest and best use creates a win win for them and for your shop. The best people that will be in your workforce in five years are probably the people that are already on your team today. Whatever you can do to improve their skills will pay dividends all the way around. PMPA has created an online training program called PMPA MFG to help you upgrade the knowledge and competencies of your new hires as well as existing performers. Check it out here: PMPA MFG Workforce Training or give Sterling Gill, III a call at PMPA HQ to get a personal demonstration.
Increa$ed Working Capital – If you really intend to take advantage of the strong demand for manufactured products in the next year, you will need to look at your working capital and adjust accordingly. The economists  – uhh- Santa’s Helpers-  that we follow have walked back their “recession in 2019” forecast and are now talking about a much more likely “soft landing.” Continuing strength for our shops through the first half for 2018 and a slight slowing in Q3 and Q4. The capital needs of a business  in a strong and growing market are much different than those needed when we were all in “hunker down mode”in a barely tepid economy. Our Business trends shows that the market for our products has shifted to a new higher level, and we see that strength continuing in our immediate and actionable future. Plan for success. Talk to your banker.
Fewer Regulatory Surprises – Regulatory surprises have been the basis for my personal economy and full employment  since the 2008 election. The current administration’s noticeably different approach has allowed me to focus my attentions to other areas of compliance, improvement, and member service. However, we are now on the lookout for  Trade and Tariff storms which could suddenly disrupt the markets and demand for our components (By forcing Santa’s sleigh to pull over until they pass.) On the regulatory side, as shop owners we need to continue to be diligent, train, document, and audit our systems for safety and compliance. If we do this we will both intelligently manage our risk, and also allay any fears of finding a stocking full of coal…
That’s what I caught a sneak peek of when I met with Santa. I hope that you consider these points and take appropriate action. It is up to us to respond appropriately to the strength in demand and markets. PMPA members looking for further details are welcome to contact me at PMPA.

November ISM-PMI Report Down Half a Point- We Think It Is Remarkable!

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The Institute for Supply Management last week reported that “The November PMI® registered 58.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the October reading of 58.7 percent. “ This value means that “Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 102nd consecutive month.”
We’d like to provide a wee bit of sensemaking to this report- as normally  people would think that a decline in the index is  not a positive thing.

  • The decline is just 0.5 point- which means that this November reading is higher than every other monthly reading this year except for October and September.  Can you say “unseasonably high?”
  • That decline is also higher than 45 of the last 50 readings, going back to October 2013. Do you agree with us that the data indicates that “the process has shifted.”
  • The absolute values of the index  are consistent with Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding as well as growth in the overall economy.

Here’s the chart, courtesy of Calculated Risk Blog

November value remains above most historical values since the end of the great recession, despite seasonality.

We took the liberty of running the ISM PMI averages for January through November for 2014, 2015, 2016- they came in at 55.84, 51.67, 51.22; together, they average 52.91.
The 2017 January-November average for the ISM PMI is 57.38.
We believe that the data is clear that the process has shifted, in a positive direction. Up 4.47 points  98.4%) over the average for the same period for the last three years.
Manufacturing in the United States is performing substantially better than it has over the past three years, and we believe that is is not an anomaly.
ISM PMI November Announcement