2019 was a better year than you think, finishing essentially even with 2018. Responding shops have balanced expectations going into  1Q 2020.” -PMPA  Business Trends Review and Summary December 2019

Despite the drop in shipments in the last two months of the year, calendar year 2019 finished at 133, one point off last
year’s calendar year final of 134, and up nearly 10 points or 7.8 percent over the average of the last five years 2014-2018.
December came in at 110, up 3.4 points and 3.2 percent over the five- year average for the month of December.
Despite the softening of shipments in November and December, 2019 has been a very strong year
for Sales, and finished virtually even with 2018. Even with the lowest level of sales for the year this month, we are just one
point (less than ¾ of a percent!) off last year’s Sales for the year.
Forty-two percent of our shops were scheduling overtime in December! The almost even balance between sentiments to increase or decrease for all of our sentiment indicators likely
bode well for a level and stable start in 2020. We have no reason to complain about sales softness with both the December and year-end sales numbers coming in above 5-year averages.
The Fed INDPRO release for December reported “increases of 0.2 percent for manufacturing.”
After two years of strong sales growth (2017 was up 6.8% over 2016; 2018 was up 7.2% over 2017), 2019 finished
essentially even with 2018. 
December 2019 Business Trends Report
Accredited media please contact gro.apmp@noskcaJJ for your copy.

New Presidential Proclamation – Steel and Aluminum “Derivative Products”

Tuesday January 28, 2020

The 10% tariffs on aluminum derivatives and 25% on steel derivatives only applies to the following: stamped steel or aluminum auto bumpers or steel or aluminum body stamping for agriculture; steel nails, tacks (other than thumb tacks), drawing pins, corrugated nails, staples for hand power tools or manual use; aluminum stranded wire, cables, plaited bands and the like, including slings and similar articles.

 Within those items, the steel or aluminum must account for 2/3 or more of the total cost of materials; import volumes have increased since imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs; and the import volumes exceed the average 4% increase for all goods entering the U.S.

See below for links to actual annexes identifying which products are now subject to 25% or 10% tariffs.

 

Expansion Annex I Derivatives of Aluminum Articles

Expansion Annex II Derivatives of Steel Articles

 

How does OSHA decide to inspect shops?
Prior to this latest change, OSHA followed its Enforcement Weighting System (EWS).
Late in 2019 OSHA revised its inspection priority weighting system.
OSHA LOGO
OSHA has identified two objectives for this revision to the Enforcement Weighting System
(EWS), now known as the OSHA Weighting System (OWS)
To continue to develop and support a management system to focus enforcement activities
on critical and strategic areas where the Agency’s efforts can have the most impact and
• To further promote the appropriate allocation of resources to support OSHA’s balanced
approach to promoting safe and healthy workplaces.
Here is the new Enforcement Priority Weighting Scheme
Enforcement Units
Enforcement cases will be assigned the following weight:

  1.  Group A: Includes the most time intensive, complex, and high-priority inspections. 7 EUs
    a. Criminal cases
    b. Significant cases
  2.  Group B: Includes inspections for high-priority hazards and those that are more complex
    than average and/or are of high lasting value. 5 EUs
    a. Inspections following fatalities and catastrophes
    b. Chemical plant NEP and Process Safety Management (PSM) Inspections
  3.  Group C: Includes programmed inspections following an established emphasis program
    (EP) for hazards that are among the leading causes of death in the workplace.3 EUs
    a. Caught-in hazards—e.g., trenching, equipment operations, oil & gas
    b. Electrical hazards—e.g., overhead power lines, electrical wiring methods
    c. Fall Hazards—e.g. scaffolds, elevated walking working surfaces
    d. Struck-by hazards—e.g., highway work zones, landscaping, material handling
  4.  Group D: Includes programmed inspections following an established EP for priority
    hazards that are somewhat time intensive and are a high priority. This category also
    includes inspections for novel hazards and programmed inspections undertaken in
    conjunction with an established enforcement policy addressing associated serious safety
    and health hazards. 2 EUs
    a. Amputation hazards
    b. Combustible dust
    c. Ergonomics
    d. Federal agency inspections
    e. Heat hazards
    f. Non-PEL overexposures
    g. Workplace violence hazards
    h. Permit required confined space hazards—e.g., grain storage or maritime or
    construction
    i. Personal sampling—e.g., air contaminants or noise
    j. Site specific targeting
  5.  Group E: Includes all other inspections not otherwise listed. 1 EU
  6.  Regions may submit other regional or local emphasis programs for approval and
    weighting if they are not already covered under items 1-4 and assign them two to three
    EUs.
  7. Link to OSHA White Paper on OWS

We urge all shops to look at this for guidance in prioritizing their risk evaluation and remediation and training programs to minimize the chances of these OSHA Priority Hazards occurring in their shops.
 

PMPA Business Trends January 2020

 

“January Sales Rebound- Positive 3 Months Ahead”

 

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for January 2020 rebounded to 139, up 26% over December 2019. Down just 2% from January 2019’s record of 142, up 3% over January 2018, and up 7.8% over the fiveyear average for the January index. This is a repeat of last January’s strong performance, and should help you understand that the sluggish performance in the last quarter of 2019 was due to seasonal factors, as well as to assignable causes in our largest markets served- the UAW strike at GM and the ongoing issues at Boeing. (The Boeing story remains on the front page of the Wall Street Journal- Boeing Plans More Relief for Suppliers- February 24, 2020). NO RECESSION IN PRECISION MACHINING! (only two consecutive months of declines.)

 

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