NO RECESSION IN PRECISION MACHINING! (only two consecutive months of declines.)

Success-ion not Recession
No recession here! Only two consecutive months of (expected) seasonal declines!

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for January 2020 rebounded to 139, up 26% over December 2019.
Down just 2% from January 2019’s record of 142, up 3% over January 2018, and up 7.8% over the five-year average for the January index.
This is a repeat of last January’s strong performance, and should help you understand that the sluggish performance in the last quarter of 2019 was due to seasonal factors, as well as to assignable causes in our largest markets served- the UAW strike at GM and the ongoing issues at Boeing.
(The Boeing story remains on the front page of the Wall Street Journal- Boeing Plans More Relief for Suppliers– February 24, 2020).
NO RECESSION IN PRECISION MACHINING! (only two consecutive months of declines.)
And by the way, we outperformed the Fed’s Industrial Production Manufacturing Index by a huge margin!
The Fed reported that Industrial Production (IP) “declined 0.3 percent in January, as unseasonably warm weather held down the output of utilities and as a major manufacturer significantly slowed production of civilian aircraft. The index for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percent in January; excluding the production of aircraft and parts, factory output advanced 0.3 percent.”
Recession? Not even.
Success-ion? Well, it depends on how you manage. The numbers show a very positive outlook. Be positive. The facts support you.

ITR Economic Report – February 2020


Five of the seven leading indicators that PMPA follows are in either slowing growth or recession mode at the current time. Two of our key market indicators are in accelerating growth.

Looking at the current situation of broad weakness in the markets we serve, it is easy to have a negative outlook. We recall that it is always darkest before the dawn.

This report shares several indicators that foretell positive development in our markets in the coming year.  What happens when our markets do recover? Were you held back in 2018 and 2019 by lack of capacity? Will that be your fate again when the orders return? Put today to highest and best use to prepare for the sales recovery that is indicated. Train your team. Improve your process. Edit your customer list.  Low interest rates suggest that now may be the time to buy what you need to optimize your operations for the higher sales that are just ahead.


The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.