PMPA Business Trends March 2019

 

“March 2019- Back to the Future! Another Sales Record- Following the Pattern”

 

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for March 2019 came in at 147, (That is not a typo!) up 14 points-10.5%- over February 2019’s 133, and a new high for our index! The March value is up 8.8% over the five year average for the March BT Sales index! This 147 is a new record for the March sales index, as well as a record high for our Business Trends Index for all time. (Please see end notes for our comments on last March‘s Business trends.)

 

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I was asked this question on Quora. Thought that you might like my answer.
Spoiler alert- I blamed Moms…

There’s the culprit!

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Enjoy!
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Photo credit: http://forums.canadiancontent.net/showthread.php?t=117816
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Published March 2019

By PMPA Staff

On Oct. 4, 2018, Michael Reader of Precision Plus in Elkhorn, Wisconsin, was formally elected as PMPA’s next president. The election was held at the organization’s board of directors meeting at PMPA’s 85th Annual Meeting at the Ritz-Carlton Grande Lakes hotel in Orlando, Florida.

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The February PMI® registered 54.2 percent, an decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the January reading of 56.6 percent…Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 118th consecutive month.“- Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

Solidly positive unless you are microfocused on the trend.

 
While the expectation was for 55 or more, and so many folks were disappointed at this slower rate of growwth in manufacturing, this point of view actually misses where exactly we are in the Manufacturing cycle.
What the disappointed people see: Eeyores view:
ISM PMI Feb 2019 Down down down…

 
Here is a less myopic view:
Same data different scale.

 
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
Yes the trend is declining.
Look at where we have been!
Now back to the ISM report:
““Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by notable demand and output, although both were softer than the prior month. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index reaching the mid-50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index scoring lower and remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders returning to a low-50s expansion level. ” – No bad news to be found here!
We continue to see the positives in the ISM PMI indicator. Our shops are running full and sentiment on our internal reports remains strongly positive.
We’re definitely not having an Eeyore moment in Precision Machining!
We’re not having an Eeyore moment despite the graphs.

 
Disney photocredit: https://winniethepooh.disney.com/eeyore
 

The February PMI® registered 54.2 percent, an decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the January reading of 56.6 percent…Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 118th consecutive month.“- Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

Solidly positive unless you are microfocused on the trend.

 
While the expectation was for 55 or more, and so many folks were disappointed at this slower rate of growwth in manufacturing, this point of view actually misses where exactly we are in the Manufacturing cycle.
What the disappointed people see: Eeyores view:
ISM PMI Feb 2019 Down down down…

 
Here is a less myopic view:
Same data different scale.

 
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
Yes the trend is declining.
Look at where we have been!
Now back to the ISM report:
““Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by notable demand and output, although both were softer than the prior month. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index reaching the mid-50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index scoring lower and remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders returning to a low-50s expansion level. ” – No bad news to be found here!
We continue to see the positives in the ISM PMI indicator. Our shops are running full and sentiment on our internal reports remains strongly positive.
We’re definitely not having an Eeyore moment in Precision Machining!
We’re not having an Eeyore moment despite the graphs.

 
Disney photocredit: https://winniethepooh.disney.com/eeyore