PMPA Business Trends October 2022

The PMPA October Business Trends Index pivoted toward softening in October, with Sales, Leadtime, and Profitability all to the negative. Sentiment for Employment remained level. While our sales index for October is down 6.4 percent from September, it is the highest ever for the month of October, up 7 percent from the previous high, and up 16 percent from the five-year average for the month of October. Our sales index has not dropped below the calendar year average (141) of 2021 in any month of 2022.

For the year, our index is up 23 points over 2021 calendar year average, an increase of 16 percent. In April, we predicted a “gangbusters year with the calendar year average coming in at 159.” Our year-to-date average of 164 is six points or three percent higher than our April prediction.

As you enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday with your family and loved ones, your business’s high level of sales and performance this year will be an important addition to your Gratitude List.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends September 2022

Level sales in September belie pivot to reduced precision machining activity for 4th Quarter of CY 2022. Level sales remained high- fourth highest level for our indicator ever. Average length of first shift increased by a slight 0.1 of an hour, with no shops responding  that had scheduled less than 40 hours. Outlook for the next three months for Lead Times remained level, while indicators for Sales, Profitability and Employment all continued to decline. The data continue to show a strong year for our precision Machining Industry.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends August 2022

The PMPA Business Trends Index increased from 154 in July to 173 in August, a gain of 19 points and 12.3 percent. This is our index’s third highest monthly value ever. For the year, our index is up 22 points over 2021 calendar year average, an increase of 15.6 percent. While sentiment indicators suggest softening in the months ahead, our sales index has not dropped below the calendar year average (141) of 2021 in any month of 2022. So, such softening is not unexpected. The combination of all factors discussed in this report makes a persuasive case for an adjustment back toward more typical levels of sales and production in the next three months. The three- and twelve-month moving averages of sales continue to trend upwards on a parallel track.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Forecast Report August 2022

 PMPA/ITR Economics Forecast Report August 2022  

 

Many of our shops have been scheduling over ten percent overtime all year, so a softening in the economy and in our customer’s markets just might sound like a bit of welcome relief.  ITR Economics has examined the data, and despite the uncertainties that clutter all of our news feeds, and thinking, has developed some positive and well-considered counsel for us to consider. The widespread uncertainty is neither our destiny nor a predictor of things to come.

Read the August ITR Economics report and get comfortable with your shop’s short terms by confirming the indicators that really do count.

 

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The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment. 

PMPA Business Trends July 2022

Sales reported by PMPA Business Trends Participants decreased by 12 percent, to our sixth highest level of sales ever at 154. Three of our four sentiment indicators pivoted markedly positive, Sales, Profitability, and Lead Times pointing to positivity in the next three months, Outlook for employment remains level at 94 percent. The data continue to show a strong year ahead for our shops sales, despite the challenges we face.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

 

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PMPA Business Trends June 2022

The PMPA Business Trends Index increased from 167 in May, to 175 in June-  increasing eight points or 4.8 percent, our index’s second highest value ever. It is up 27 points or 18 percent from June a year ago. PMPA’s Business Trends June sales increase dramatically outpaced the broader manufacturing sector’s two-month decline. Our Sales Index’s continued strong performance is likely a reflection of higher transaction prices across the value chain. Achieving our second highest level of sales- ever- was totally unexpected in June, indicating the urgency for critical components as global supply chains fail to maintain promised deliveries. This makes our ability to deliver parts “business saving” to our OEM customers.

All of our sentiment indicators pivoted in a negative direction, which is not unexpected as we are at record and sustained levels of sales and overtime.

The data continue to show a strong year for our shops’ sales, despite the challenges that we face in the overall economy.  The combination of all factors discussed in this report makes a strong case that demand and sales of our products are at or near a peak.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

 

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