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The latest Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manager’s Index (ISM PMI) for June 2016 increased 1.9 percent from May 2016, the fourth consecutive increase  in the index and the 85th consecutive month of increase in the overall economy.
This performance is stronger than our shops are seeing, and so we hope it bodes well for  contract machining orders to pick up in the near future…

Improvement over May 2016
Improvement over May 2016

“The June PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the May reading of 51.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the May reading of 55.7 percent. The Production Index registered 54.7 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the May reading of 52.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.4 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the May reading of 49.2 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 48.5 percent, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the May reading of 45 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.5 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the May reading of 63.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the fourth consecutive month. Manufacturing registered growth in June for the fourth consecutive month, as 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in June (down from 14 in May), and 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in June (same as in May).”
“Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 are reporting growth in June in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The three industries reporting contraction in June are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Plastics & Rubber Products.”
Is the ISM PMI a leading indicator for our precision machining shops shipments in the short term?  In May 2016, the PMPA Business Trends Index declined 8 points or 6.6% to 114, its lowest value for the month since May 2011. A majority of respondents reported sales declines in May. We certainly hope that this ISM PMI is a leading indicator for our shops!
ISM PMI News release June 2016 PMI
ISM PMI graph courtesy Calculated Risk Blog

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