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PMPA Business Trends July 2019


“Mixed Signals- Sales Index & Sentiment Recover, but Moving Averages Show Growth Slowing”


With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for July 2019 recovered up 3 points or 2.3 percent
to 132. This 132 value is the second lowest for the year, but needs to be recognized as a high value of its own right- there
were only 4 times where values higher than 132 occurred prior to 2018. The Index average for the month of July for the
prior five years was 117.4 – making July 2019’s 132 a 12.4 percent increase over the average for the last five July’s. We do
not want to overstate our optimism- the 3-month moving average of this sales index has dipped below the 12-month moving
average- indicating that the pace of growth in our industry has slowed. If slowing growth today means 12% above the prior
five years’ average sales for July, we’ll take it. Our year to date average is 137, up 3 points or 2.3% over 2018’s year-end
average of 134. July 2019 is at 104 percent of July 2018 Sales. Our sales are up 2 percent year to date