“With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for November 2018 declined 11 points to 130, which was (still) an all-time high for the month of November! Shops reporting sales declines outnumbered those reporting gains by a ratio of 4:1- not at all unexpected considering the seasonality of shipments this time of year. The Business Trends Sales Index remains on track to close the year up 8% over 2017.“- PMPA Business Trends Report for November 2018
Outlook for next three months:
Net Sales: The sales outlook resumes positive expectations for the next three months despite seasonal factors.
Lead Times:Eighty- six percent of respondents expect lead times to remain the same or increase in the next three months.
Employment:Prospects for employment continue to be positive with ninety-seven percent (97%) expecting level or increased opportunities for employment.
Profitability:Eighty-five percent of our respondents expect business and margins to remain strong for the next three months, just a slight decline from the prior month.
In our April report we forecast that our index of sales would finish the year at 135, up 8% over calendar year 2017. As of this November report, we are at 135, up 8 percent over 2017 with just one month to go. How is your shop’s performance compared to last year?
“With 79 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for June 2017 increased 5 points or 3.8% from May’s 130 to 135. This is the strongest level of shipments that we have seen in June, prior highs for June were 128 in 2015 and 2016. We continue to be optimistic for a strong performance for the industry for the balance of the year.”
The FED’s Industrial Production (IP) Index rose 0.4 percent in June for its fifth consecutive monthly increase.
Manufacturing output rose at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, a slightly slower increase than in the first quarter.
At 105.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in June was 2.0 percent above its year-earlier level.
The strength of our PMPA Business Trends Sales Index compared to that of the FED IP Indicator suggests that Industrial Production will continue to rise as companies use the products that we have shipped in excess of the IP demand in June. We remain positive for industry prospects, and note that our Sales Index is up almost 10% over last year’s full year average.
PMPA members can find the PMPA Business Trends Report HERE. Photo Credit Photo backstory