PMPA Business Trends Index Recovers 10 Points in August

With 83 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index in August 2016 recovered 10 points from July’s 108, to 118, the same value that we had in August 2014 and 2015.
Our index for the year to date has recovered to 120, the same value as 2014, and one point lower than last year’s 121. Over one eighth of this month’s respondents reported sales increases greater than 50%- we checked with all of them to confirm. Our takeaway-a lot of slow pay-no pay customers in July caught up in August. Our report asks for sales dollars, not parts shipped.

The August 2016 PMPA Business Trends Report shows that our responding shops returned to trend in August, mirroring sales performance of the same month in both 2015 and 2014. With one eighth of our respondents logging sales increases at 50% or more, our calls to confirm uncovered that perhaps the July numbers were down because customers of our shops had not paid their bills, rather than the weak numbers representing poor shipments performance. With the 3 month moving average remaining below the 12 month moving average, there is room to improve and reason to be cautious (particularly about our accounts receivable!). However, we are within a point of last year’s calendar year average, and at 120 YTD, we are even with the performance of our shops in CY 2014. The recovery to 118, typical August performance, is a good sign that despite the volatility, our shops are managing well.
Best news: Employment Sentiment!
“Prospects for employment are positive with NINETY-SIX PERCENT expecting level or increased opportunities for employment.”