Our customers are interested in what is left after we remove the chips. But it is up to us  as operators and engineers to understand that there are differences in our chips based on process, material and tooling factors- and what those differences mean.

The infamous “Bird’s Nest Chip”

Process Differences
Turning can result in a long continuous chip, while sawing or milling processes result in shorter chips because of the interrupted nature of the cut. Drilling can result in the chips being recut depending on how the tool is fed and the nature of it’s spiral and means of chip evacuation.
Different materials can drive differences in the chips as well. I’m a steel guy, so my comments are based on that experience, but similar differences will be found in other materials, just based on different factors than Carbon.
Material Differences
Plain Carbon, Low Carbon Steels (C1008, C1010) tend to generate a more Continuous, Soft Chip. Plain Carbon, Medium Carbon Steels (C1030, C1045) can give a Continuous, Semi-Soft Chip. Plain Carbon, High Carbon Steels yield a Continuous, Hard Chip. Adding alloys can result in a Continuous, Semi-Hard Chip at lower carbon contents (4120) while higher carbon alloy steels can result in a Continuous, Tough Chip (4150) Very High Carbon Alloy steels (52100) give a chip that is both Continuous and Springy.
Having said that, I do not mean to say that all of these steels will result in long stringy chips- it is just that compared to Resulfurized Steels, such as 1117, 1144, 1215, or 12L14, the chips are far less likely to fracture into nice short pieces- often called “6’s or 9’s” or “C’s.” These chips can be described as Broken Semi-Soft (1117) or Broken Semi-Hard (1144) or Well-Broken Semi Hard (12L14, 1215)
Process Parameters
Finally, having the speed, feed, depth of cut, and angles on the tools is critical if we are to optimize material removal, minimize chip volume, and keep our process stable and maximize our uptime. Chip control features can also play an important role. ISO 3685 characterizes chips into 8 types- Ribbon, Tubular, Spiral, Washer-type Helical, Conical Helical, Arc, Elemental , and Needle chips. These can then be further described by length (short, long, or snarled).
Source ISO 3685

The ISO 3685 standard is a bit pricey, but it will help you to better understand what is going on in your turning process.
Of course you can look at the part, but to learn about your processes may I suggest that you take a really good look at the chips?

2019 has been a very strong year for Sales.  PMPA’s June Business Trends Sales index  11 point “reversion to the mean” could be considered a substantial drop, but we believe the data suggests otherwise- the Sales Sentiment indicator recovery in June suggests that this is just a ‘moment’ and not a trend.

Yes it is an 11 point or 7.8% drop. That arrives at exactly the 5 year average for June 2014-2018. 129

Get more details on why we are unconvinced that this is bad news for our shops at June 2019 PMPA Business Trends

2019 has been a very strong year for Sales.  PMPA’s June Business Trends Sales index  11 point “reversion to the mean” could be considered a substantial drop, but we believe the data suggests otherwise- the Sales Sentiment indicator recovery in June suggests that this is just a ‘moment’ and not a trend.

Yes it is an 11 point or 7.8% drop. That arrives at exactly the 5 year average for June 2014-2018. 129

Get more details on why we are unconvinced that this is bad news for our shops at June 2019 PMPA Business Trends

PMPA Business Trends July 2019

 

“Mixed Signals- Sales Index & Sentiment Recover, but Moving Averages Show Growth Slowing”

 

With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for July 2019 recovered up 3 points or 2.3 percent
to 132. This 132 value is the second lowest for the year, but needs to be recognized as a high value of its own right- there
were only 4 times where values higher than 132 occurred prior to 2018. The Index average for the month of July for the
prior five years was 117.4 – making July 2019’s 132 a 12.4 percent increase over the average for the last five July’s. We do
not want to overstate our optimism- the 3-month moving average of this sales index has dipped below the 12-month moving
average- indicating that the pace of growth in our industry has slowed. If slowing growth today means 12% above the prior
five years’ average sales for July, we’ll take it. Our year to date average is 137, up 3 points or 2.3% over 2018’s year-end
average of 134. July 2019 is at 104 percent of July 2018 Sales. Our sales are up 2 percent year to date

 

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And why you should be too!

I could give you a lot of stories about how fulfilling my career has been making things that matter.
I could give you a lot of stories of the wonderful people that I have met in manufacturing- at all levels of the industry.
But today, I’m just going to provide you with some facts.
In order to have avoid confusion, I am going to use the Gross Domestic Product contribution from Manufacturing as the indicator best describing Manufacturing’s importance to our economy. Some could look at employment or productivity or other indicators, but from my perspective, I believe that how much US Manufacturing contributes to our Country’s GDP is the valid indicator.
The contribution to US GDP from Manufacturing has been growing and on quite a tear since 2009. (The vertical axis is in $ billions, ie.: ”reaching an all time high of 2154.90 USD Billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 from a record low of 1798.60 USD Billion in the first quarter of 2009.”

10 year chart of US GDP growth from Trading Economics.
Growing contribution to US GDP.

Chart source: 10 year Chart from Trading Economics United States GDP From Manufacturing
Here is another Trading Economics Chart for United States GDP from Manufacturing since January 2016.
US MFG GDP Growth 2016 to present Trading Economics
Looks like we began to get our stuff together in January of 2017!

What is it like for Precision Machining shops like ours?
I personally track a Business Trends Sales Indicator for the Precision Machining Industry Segment.
PMPA business Trends index shows growth in our manufacturing segment
We expect to finish 2019 up almost 20% over calendar year 2016.

Our forecast for 2019 is based on a very strong correlation indicator (r^2 of .96). We believe that we will finish 2019 up 4% over 2018.
And the last two years-2017 and 2018- were both up 7% over prior years.
In addition, all five of our highest months reported-ever- have been in 2018 and 2019.
Why am I bullish on US Manufacturing? As long as people around the world aspire to a USA Middle Class lifestyle, they will need manufactured goods to attain it. And US manufacturing is the third largest segment of contribution to US GDP.
Trading Economics: United States GDP From Manufacturing
PMPA Business Trends Report

 

nostalgic reminder that some things remain the same...
Sorry for the earworm, fellow Baby-Boomers…

Despite the sense of inevitable doom from all of the pundits, the June ISM PMI data came in at 51.7 (A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding.) The June report shows the New Orders unchanged, with Production and Employment growing.
Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee reported that “Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at soft levels; June was the third straight month with slowing PMI® expansion. ” (Link below)
After evaluating all factors, the June ISM PMI report concludes that the Overall Economy is growing, albeit slower, for the 122nd consecutive month.

The Manufacturing Sector was also shown to be growing, also slower, for the 34th consecutive month.
We agree that the pace of growth of manufacturing is slowing.
We also believe that there are other reasons to explain this slowing growth besides an imminent recession:

  1. Trade uncertainty– Nothing makes trade more volatile than Tariffs Policy being executed via Twitter.
  2. Trade tensions– Trade with China is a problem much greater than the tariffs issues which we see on the surface. A reset in Global trading order is playing out here, we think.
  3. Geopolitics– Iran, Russia, Brexit- nervous money remains on the sidelines keeping money tight.
  4. Speaking of money– The Fed and its future policy regarding accommodation is also on people’s minds.
  5. Employment– Full employment is typically seen as a positive, but if employers cannot get employees to replace those that they will promote to operate the new equipment, well, it becomes a vicious cycle of a don’t buy the new equipment; b) don’t promote the existing worker; c) don’t hire replacements because we can’t find them. So Full employment actually caps potential for growth.
  6. Finally, Weather.  Can’t have a complete list with out mentioning the weather! Much of manufacturing- especially fabricated metal manufacturing- goes into agricultural equipment. The unseasonable rains this year have certainly had an affect on purchase of Farm equipment. We saw headlines late last month indicating half of Ohio Farmland had yet to be planted.

Weather!

So “The Beat Goes On.” 34 months of consecutive growth in manufacturing have been logged, 122 months for the overall economy.
We see no imminent triggers for an immediate recession. and as we reported in our latest PMPA Business Trends Report, May 2019 was our fifth highest Monthly Sales Index ever.
We can agree we are at or near a top, but we do not agree that “gloom and doom” are imminent.
 
June ISM PMI
Farm and Dairy
May PMPA Business Trends 
Calculated Risk Blog 
The Beat Goes on...
The beat goes on…

 
 
Sonny and Cher

July 2019  |  Craftsman’s Cribsheet #78

The straightness of cold finished steel bars, and all other barstock for our machines, is of critical importance. The controlling standard is ASTM A 108, Table A1.4. However, the standard errs in claiming the tolerances are measured by placing the bars on a level table and the depth of the arc then measured with a feeler gage and straight edge. While that will give a value for the maximum departure from straightness, it does not actually describe the true geometric relationship.

 

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