Author: vdurden

PMPA Business Trends April 2023

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PMPA Business Trends April 2023

The PMPA monthly Business Trends Report for April dropped 17 percent to 140, the second highest level for April ever. Typically the Index declines between March and April on average by about 10.8 percent, so this decline was an overachievement. That said, the 140 value for April 2023 is up 10.8 points or 7.7 percent above the five-year average for April, and down just one point from the calendar year average for 2021, our second highest year ever.

Sentiment indicators were unsettled in April, except for Employment which increased in April, with 92 percent of respondents expecting employment to remain level or increase for the coming three months.

While the size and direction of the Sales index and Sentiment indicators are larger than expected, we see them as  “within expectations,” considering how long and how high our sales activities have been for the past couple of years.

PMPA members can also view the 2023 calendar year sales forecast. Driven by a powerful correlation to sales, this forecast will give you some mooring for your expectations as we go through what is certain to be a high volatility, high uncertainty year in our markets.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Canada Chapter President’s Round Table

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PMPA Canada Chapter President’s Round Table

 

Thursday, June 8, 2023 (5pm – 7:30pm US/Eastern)

That’s Italian Ristorante
2 Tall Grass Trail #4
Woodbridge, Ontario L4L3Y9
Canada

 

We would like to thank everyone for attending the President’s Roundtable. It was a pleasure. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PMPA/ITR Economics Forecast Report May 2023

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PMPA / ITR Economics Forecast Report May 2023

 

 

The purpose of our precision machining shops is to manufacture components that provide functionality that is needed by our customers.  Knowledge of our craft is important. But knowledge of our craft can be made irrelevant by events and circumstances beyond our control.

This month’s ITR Economic Report will help you intelligently manage risk- and focus on the significant events and circumstances in the broad economy and avoid worrying about the less important noise that is burying our news feeds and consciousness. Only one of the 8 Industry Indicators that we track are currently in a recession phase.

Two industries that are heavily served by our shops are in the accelerating growth phase- more good news, while the remaining five industries that we serve are currently in a slowing growth phase.

We are not yet seeing recession in our markets. ITR does see a recession on the horizon, and in their report explain why it will be relatively mild, and when to expect it in the eight industries segments that we follow. Read the full report to learn the best steps to take to evaluate your market position and intelligently manage the risk of the phases of the business cycle that are ahead.

 

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The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment. 

PMPA Business Trends March 2023

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PMPA Business Trends March 2023

Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. March sales return to that trend. Our Business Trends Sales Index- at 169 for the month of March- was unexpectedly high. It was the fifth highest level of sales we have ever seen for our Business Trends  Sales Index. And it was up 13.7 percent over the five year average for March. Our first quarter sales is accordingly high, just under 4 percent lower than the 2022 full year calendar year average. The demand for the precision machined components produced in our shops remains high. Sentiment for lead time for next three months tells us that backlog is solid. Precision Machined products manufacturing is thriving.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

 

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PMPA Eastern New England President’s Round Table

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Eastern New England Chapter President’s Round Table

 

PMPA would like to thank everyone who came out to support the President’s Roundtable. Also a special thanks to Accurounds, Kinefac and Swissturn/ USA.

 

 

 

PMPA Business Trends February 2023

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PMPA Business Trends February 2023

Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. Our February Sales performance is normalizing at high levels for the month and time of year. Sentiment indicators were positive for Sales and Employment, level for Lead times and Profitability. Our hours of first shift scheduled attest to a return to normal in our shops, despite high demand. While the value for February is the second highest value ever for that month, it is a return to the levels we had prior to the stratospheric performance we logged  in 2022.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

VIEW/DOWNLOAD

 

PMPA/ITR Economics Forecast Report March 2023

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PMPA / ITR Economics Forecast Report March 2023

 

 

The data shows a number of factors pointing to the likelihood of a broad , economic slowdown. While recession is coming, its arrival time is not yet clear. This report discusses, for the markets that our shops serve, expectations of timelines, severity and recovery for demand for our components. Despite the likelihood of “recession,” the data points to a relatively mild downturn, not a thrill ride.

This ITR report is organized by markets served, so take care to look at the relevant entries for your business, rather than get caught up in an overall pessimism. Focus on selling in markets that do not look as pessimistic, understand and manage the risks- both positive and negative, and take advantage of any production slowdowns to increase the training and skill level of your talented performers.  

This report should give you the managerial confidence to lead, focus on the important, and lean into opportunities while others panic.

 

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The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment. 

PMPA Business Trends December 2022 Year End Review and Summary

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PMPA Business Trends December 2022 Year End Review and Summary

For the year, our Business Trends Sales Index  calendar year average came in at 160- up nineteen points over the 2021 calendar year average of 141, an increase of 13.5 percent. While the monthly index for December softened by ten points or 6.8 percent to 137 from November’s  147 value, it marks the first time that this  index came in below 140 for the year. The average for the fourth quarter was 148- showing just how busy our shops have been in this traditionally weakest quarter for sales. This 148 value shows our fourth quarter sales average was seven points or 5 percent higher than the average for the entire 2021 calendar year- despite fourth quarter being our lowest performing period. Sentiment Indicators for first three months of 2023 are encouraging.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

VIEW/DOWNLOAD

 

PMPA Business Trends January 2023

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PMPA Business Trends January 2023

 Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. Our January sales performance  was unexpectedly high- up 13 percent over December  and 12 percent over the five-year average for January. Our indicator outperformed both Industrial Production and New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods. Sentiment indicators were positive for Lead times, Employment and Profitability.  Our positive sentiment indicators combined with record sales in January suggest optimism going into February 2023.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

VIEW/DOWNLOAD