This graph is pretty clear.

Recovery in Precision Manufacturing.

PMPA’s Index of Sales of Precision Machined Products in February 2011 was 110, staying even with the adjusted value for January 2011. (January had been reported at 111.) February’s index of 110 remains at its highest level in the thirty-two months since June 2008. Additional data in the February report indicated the industry is recovering nicely, and outlook is positive. The February 2011 sales level was equal to the February 2008 level prior to the Economic Recession.
This strong showing of industry sales is a clear signal that we need to adjust from our recessionary mode “hunker down” management style to a recovery mode “aggressively manage risk” methodology if we are to take full advantage of the markets today.
More than ever before, the keys to our company’s success are in our hands, not market externalitites.
PMPA members can read the full report at this link.
Accredited Press please contact PMPA for a copy of the report.

I like it when I find an authority with clear facts to share.
Facts that I want to help share.

Daniel J. Meckstroth

The following is an analysis from Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index for August 2010 (the ISM Index was 56.3 percent, an 0.8 percentage point improvement over July).

Manufacturing has consistently outperformed the pace of growth in the general economy during this recovery,” he said.  “For example, GDP increased only at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2010 but manufacturing industrial production expanded at a 7.9 percent rate.  Amidst evidence that the general economy is slowing to a crawl, this report indicates that manufacturing activity continues to grow at a healthy pace.  Industrial firms are building inventories that were depleted during the recession and exports are surging in machinery and equipment and material industries. 
“The strong growth in manufacturing production is partly catch up for a substantially more severe recession in the industry than the overall economy,” he added.  “Also, the depth and length of the previous downturn built pent up demand for replacing big ticket consumer goods and repair and replacement in business.  We expect manufacturing production to decelerate in the near term but still grow faster than overall GDP.”


MAPI Press Release

For the Precision Machining Industry, a strong case can be made that our sales are recovering.

Comeback performances are not just limited to Athletes
Comeback performances are not just limited to Athletes

PMPA’s Index of Sales of Precision Machined Products rose to 82, just one point below January’s high of 83.
4 months in a row of sales increases.
4 months in a row of sales increases.

 This is an 11 percent rise in the sales index compared to August, and documents  the 95 reporting companies in aggregate are showing a 26% recovery in sales compared to the 2009 year low of 65 in May, 2009.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of our particpants reported double digit sales increases in September.
The outlook for sales in the short term has stabilized, with only 19% of respondents expecting a decline in sales overthe next three months.
For almost a year, Tom Brady sat on the sidelines, working on his recovery. In the sixth week of this new season, he set an NFL record for touchdown passes in one quarter.  What a comeback!
 The Precision Machining Industry is still on the field despite being hamstrung last fall by the economic meltdown. Our performance continues to be 100% on time and zero ppm. We just need more time on the field. Comeback in progress!
See the full report.
We have open time on our machines. How can we help you?

The August 2009 PMPA Business Trends Report increased to 73 in August up 3 points from July, up 4 points from June, and up 8 points from the May 2009 low of 65.  Three months in a row of upward movement!

"Only three months in a row of non negative sales growth"
"Only three months in a row of non negative sales growth"

Three consecutive months of improvement. Or as one of my more pessimistic colleagues puts it, ” three consecutive months of sales not getting any worse.
We’ll prefer our positive optimism to living in his dreary outlook anyday.
Here are our latest reasons we believe that the precision machining industry has begun its recovery based on approximately 100 members participating in our monthly PMPA Business Trends Report.

  1. Three consecutive months of sales increases.
  2. Over half  52% of respondents reported sales increases, and one third reported double digit sales increases.
  3. Average length of first shift climbed again to 38.2 hours. 
  4. 63 % of responding companies reported 40 hour or more average length of first shift.

The shops reporting serve the Medical, Automotive, Aerospace, Heavy Machinery, Truck, Construction Equipment, Food Service Equipment, and Military Markets.
PMPA members can see the latest Business Trends Report here.
Bonus good news  about the economy from the Fed Open Market Committee per  an email from Dr. Ken Mayland, Clearview Economics:
“…economic activity has picked up…” versus last meeting on 8/12: “…economic activity is leveling out.”  Yeah!  The economy is now recovering (not recovered).
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