Have You Checked Your Quote Book Recently?

Check your quote book to get a glimpse of where your business is positioned.

by David Wynn

Director of Technical Services & Industry Affairs, PMPA

Published July 1, 2025

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When looking at business conditions, we must self-normalize data. Business is an easy target for noise. Everyone around us — the news media, social media, industry media and colleagues — all have their shiny objects they follow. The trick is to find data that tells us where the trend is going, not our current state. Knowing the direction and slope of a trend in business provides clarity for making decisions. Clarity in decisions provides the path to victory.

Not all metrics work in every business cycle. Remember the warning label on every prospectus: “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” The metrics that have long tracked records of providing forward-looking analysis help predict trends. I use the term “metrics” plural because several indicators pointing in a direction will have a better chance of predicting the future.  Leading indicators provide a snapshot of the future and state of the business cycle. 

It is important to find multiple indicators in our business to shield our decisions from the business cycles where one indicator screams fire while the rest do not. One of the best indicators in sales is your pipeline or funnel. 

There are several ways to look at a sales funnel. In our business of machining, we often start at the proposal stage, skipping prospecting and qualification. At the proposal stage there are hard facts which provide data for making future state predictions. Prospecting and qualification are valuable parts of the process but have limited data for  making predictions. Tracking the total of outstanding  proposals provides a number. Knowing the win-rate predictions can be made on the future state of business.  

When talking about total proposals — what I call the “quote book” — there are four data points to track:  

• Total Won. Quotes won and a part order (PO) is received.
• Total Awarded. This is typically contingent contracts. A customer has awarded you the business contingent on their customer ordering the widget.
• Total Lost. Quotes that were lost due to cost, delivery, quality requirements and so on.
• Total Open Quote Book =  Total Quote Book – Total Lost – Total Won.

I leave in total awarded even though they are technically a winning quote because no PO means they don’t generate dollars for the business. Total awarded is like potential energy. It has the potential to generate cash but without a PO, it is still in our “quote book”. This can get more complicated to give granular detail. Tracking average days outstanding to each metric and the percentage of each of the data points can provide a time-based weighted average predictive analysis of the quote book.  

So … have you checked your quote book recently? I know shops that are running 200-300% above normal open quote book. 

One shop is currently at 500% above normal. Some of this is tariff window shopping. Larger primes are gathering data on what it will cost to produce in the United States. I don’t believe all of this is exploratory. Gross private investment increased by 21.9% in the first quarter GDP. Companies are building new manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Check your quote book to get a glimpse of where your future is positioned. 

Author

David Wynn is the PMPA Director of Technical Services & Industry Affairs with over 20 years of experience in the areas of manufacturing, quality, ownership, IT and economics. Email David

Generating Value — Generational Values

Accounting accounts for costs. How does a successful multigenerational business account for value(s)?

by Miles Free III

Director Emeritus, PMPA

Published July 1, 2025

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I have attended every Horn Technology Days program since 2011. Regardless of economic or geopolitical news, every two years Horn has had new technology on display, a new cohort of apprentices and new investments and capabilities in their means of production. I asked CEO Markus Horn and Press Officer Christian Thiele if we could explore the thinking that makes this so.

Miles Free (MF): Horn continues to invest in your technology and people. I would argue that you also invest in your customers. How does this make Horn the employer of choice and enable you to attract the talent that you require?

Markus Horn (MH): Technology equals growth. We continue to invest so that we can stay aligned to our vision of the future. During the Great Recession (2009/2010) we placed on order 80 machines. Crisis provides a very good opportunity to succeed in paths  where you can grow and have the flexibility to help the customer, while others are playing it safe and do not invest.

MF: This courage to invest helps you to hire talent?

MH: The question about hiring is often seen as one of quantity. How many? It is not. It is, to our way of thinking, about how many are recommended to find their success here in our manufacturing. To be a preferred employer.

MF: You are third generation of your family in the family business, I am third generation of my family in manufacturing, how many people employed at Horn do you think are similarly multigenerational, supporting your “recommended to work here” thesis?

MH: We asked our apprentices how they learned of our company — online, websites and so on. We were surprised to find none of them came from our social media. All came because someone that they knew personally shared our company. Our first principle is that all employees must be satisfied here. They are not a number. The fact that we have so many recommendations is our indicator — showing all of our employees share our commitment and values.

MF: What do you think the number of multigenerational employees is here in Tubingen? 

Christian Thiele (CT): I was prepared for this question — of our 900 employees, over 200 are multigenerational in some way. When we say that Horn is a family company, we can see that over one fifth of our employees are indeed kin as well. So, they have family bonds and shared values that align with our company  goals and values.

MF: I have always believed that having work that matters — purpose, if you will — is critical in keeping performers satisfied.

CT: Purpose does matter, and as an employee, if they are responsible for their purpose and they have the package and what they need to perform, they can have confidence in the company and their colleagues, and so produce tools that lead the way.

MH: If it is something no one else has done before, if we are first, we can only win. This gives us the courage to invest. This is our purpose to use the latest science to create our own future. It gives us time to develop what is now the newest. We have a single vision over time. Many companies that are focused on price are focused on cost. We believe that if shops want to win, they actually need to focus on value. My father and grandfather would say, “I don’t have enough money to buy something cheap.” If you want to win, you need to have the best tools, the latest capabilities. That is the true differentiator. It is about value, not cost. Values that people can align with.

MF: It seems to me that one of the values at Horn that is shared through the generations is the focus on the future. From the outside, it looks like pragmatic optimism. But that really understates what is going on.

MH: Technology brings us forward. That is why we call this Technology Days. It is about revealing to our customers the latest technology. Humans naturally fear not knowing the future. At Technology Days, we bring our customers to the future that we have intentionally created, the success that we want for them and ourselves. The economic cycles, the news, these come and go, but we are not necessarily a part of it. As a company, as a family, we all need to be prepared to get through these. Our preferred way to prepare is to use the latest technology.

CT: If employees have a purpose — meaningful work — they will stay aligned with this goal. 

MH: Clear transparent communications — open discussion of facts — leads to confidence and honesty. With such a culture, why would one leave? Despite uncertainty, technology is the driver of sustainable growth in the future. Why should we not invest? Why should we not continue to hire, to train? As Swabians, we are never satisfied. So, everything that we do is to make the future better.

Author

Miles Free III is the PMPA Director Emeritus with over 50 years of experience in the areas of manufacturing, quality and steelmaking. Miles’ podcast is at pmpa.org/podcast. Email Miles

Tariffs, HTS Codes and Your Company’s Scope

Scope creep has become a tsunami!

by Miles Free III

Director of Industry Affairs, PMPA

Published June 1, 2025

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Tariffs have become the number one item of concern and conversation in our manufacturing industry. Every day, every hour, it seems there is something new to learn about tariffs. And that is causing a great deal of concern and uncertainty. What do these mean for our business today, and in the immediate and longer-term future?

These concerns are magnified by the fact that “foreign trade” is not included in the scope of our quality management systems, nor has there been a need to understand the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) at the 10-digit level. Until now. Where can your shop turn to make sense of the tariff tsunami that is overwhelming all of the media and conversations between ourselves, our suppliers and our customers? May I humbly suggest effective associating through your industry trade association?

PMPA has led our shops to understand the impacts of the tariff developments since prior to their announcement. We have been working with our Washington D.C. team to prepare our members with online webinars, slide decks and review of HTS codes. We have helped our members push back on false tariff claims made by their package delivery providers who were misapplying tariffs by what seemed to be a random process. What else would explain an aluminum tariff being charged by the carrier for an international shipment of steel machine components? On the entire value of the shipment?

We have helped our members understand the taxonomy of HTS codes so they could help their customers determine the proper classification for the components that our shops supply based on the final product in which it is incorporated. This has been an essential benefit, as both our shop management and the supplier-facing procurement employees at our customers typically lack formal training in the increasingly important field of international business.

Navigating the Tsunami
What can you do to help your company navigate the tariff tsunami that has waves breaking far above all of our heads? Here are a few suggestions:

Join the trade association for your industry. At PMPA, we have an ongoing practice of advocating for our members as well as bringing them information that will help them navigate all of the legislative and administrative developments that can impact them and the markets that they serve.
Connect with your trade association’s staff and find out what resources they have available to explain these developments and ask advice on how to respond.

Attend the online and local programming as well as read any publications or breaking news shared by your association so that you will have authoritative, industry relevant details that you can apply to your situation.

Engage with your suppliers and customers to seek out alternatives that might allow all parties to avoid the tariff in the first place. If the first choice of material is imported and offers a 25% advantage in machining, but comes with a 25% tariff, why not use the domestically available alternative with the lower machinability and no tariff?

Study the categories for the components you make. Compare to the chapters of the HTS codes (hts.usitc.gov/) is your component an article of iron and steel under Chapter 73? Is it an article of plastic (Chapter 39) or rubber (Chapter 40)? Is it made of copper or copper-based materials (Chapter 74)? Nickel and articles thereof (Chapter 75)? Aluminum (Chapter 76)?

Don’t just look at it based on raw material — Chapter 84 reads “nuclear reactors, boilers” — not many of our shops are making parts for these on a daily basis, but Chapter 84 also includes machinery and mechanical appliances and parts thereof. Our components are essential in these applications. Chapters 86-89 cover vehicles and all things transport equipment.

There are more. Chapter 93 covers arms and ammunition parts and accessories. Miscellaneous manufactured items (furniture) can be found in Chapters 94-96.

The point of this article isn’t to teach you how to find it. The point is: Who is helping you make sense of the challenges you are facing? At PMPA, we provide this kind of sense making every day for our members so that they can adapt and thrive. Who is doing that for you? Because nobody has “must become expert on HTS codes for the raw materials, tools, equipment we buy or the components we sell” on their management scope and list of responsibilities and authorities. Until now. Who is helping you? PMPA is helping our members find the information that they need to become Better Together.

Author

Miles Free III is the PMPA Director of Industry Affairs with over 50 years of experience in the areas of manufacturing, quality and steelmaking. Miles’ podcast is at pmpa.org/podcast. Email Miles